It's got a pretty good name, but can the B.C. First Party amount to anything more than yet another fringe party destined for irrelevancy?

In most situations, I'd say the odds were extremely long that it would become anything more than a hobby horse for the handful of people involved in it.

But with the B.C. Liberals teetering on the edge of disaster, it's worth pondering what could happen if that party's coalition of interests breaks up before the next election.

And with the likes of Bill Vander Zalm and Chris Delaney lurking around the political landscape and continuing to poke the Liberals in the eye at every opportunity, all bets are essentially off when it comes to foreseeing how the centre-right vote in this province is going to be distributed come the next election.

The B.C. First Party was registered with Elections B.C. by a couple of former Conservative activists, including one - Sal Vetro - who is directly associated with Vander Zalm (he was his official agent for the anti-HST petition).

They claim the party would brand itself as a centrist party, which could potentially appeal to a bigger pool of voters than the more narrowly defined B.C. Conservative party. But attracting the right kind of leader is one of the keys to any chance of even modest success.

So far, neither Vander Zalm nor Delaney has said they are interested in joining the new party. Delaney is still active in the seemingly moribund B.C. Conservative Party, but he's close to resigning because of prolonged in-fighting among the few people active in the organization.

At the moment, both Delaney and Vander Zalm have a higher political profile than any other non-elected activist on the political scene. They are in the news constantly as a result of their successful petition campaign and will continue to be in the public eye as the government goes through what could be a lengthy process in determining what to do with the HST.

Delaney's been a party leader before, when he headed up the doomed Unity Party in 2001 (even getting a spot in the televised leaders' debate in that year's election campaign).

And Vander Zalm, of course, is a proven campaigner and one whom the television cameras love (until he actually gets power, which is when his weaknesses come to the fore).

While I don't see Vander Zalm getting back into electoral politics (I think his wife, Lillian, would banish him to the garden if he did), I can see Delaney taking a stab at things. He's a pretty good communicator, although his somewhat prickly personality may have to be held in check if he expects to make progress.

In any event, the time seems right for someone or some party to seize the obvious anti-government sentiment that is building in this province and do something with it.

The NDP always struggles with gaining even a percentage point or two in the popular vote in every election, so it would appear to have limited growth potential.

Of course, if the B.C. First Party mobilized itself and actually picked up a significant chunk of voters, it would virtually guarantee an NDP government because it would split the vote with the B.C. Liberals.

The current situation has some striking parallels to the one this province faced back in 1991.

Back then, a coalition government that had been in power for too long was crumbling right before our eyes.

Its supporters went looking for an alternative, and for almost all of them the NDP certainly wasn't that alternative.

Then along came Gordon Wilson, who breathed life in the dormant B.C. Liberal Party and almost stole the 1991 election on the strength of a single, throwaway sound bite during the televised leaders' debate.

But he succeeded in splitting enough votes to allow the NDP to win.

Are we headed towards the same kind of scenario? Ordinarily, I'd say the idea would be far-fetched.

But we are not living in ordinary times. Our political scene is fracturing, a fervent populism seems to be sweeping the land, and the desire for change is in the air.

It seems the most unanswered question is not which party is going to win the next election (increasingly, that would appear to be the NDP), but which party is going to finish second. The odds favour the B.C. Liberals being that second-place finisher, but don't completely count out any alternative, whether it's B.C. First or something else.

Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global B.C.