Commercial fishermen were casting their nets in Johnstone Strait off Vancouver Island last week to take advantage of the first major Fraser River sockeye salmon opening in four years, and early reports suggest salmon stocks could be returning in a big numbers after last year's record low.

According to the Department of Fisheries and Oceans, the forecast is for seven to 11 million sockeye returning to the Fraser by the end of the season, well above early forecasts of five to eight million.

"(Fraser sockeye) stocks, we've seen, are returning better than forecast this season," said Barry Rosenberger, the department of fisheries area director for the Interior. "These increased returns this year are much better than the last three years, so it's very positive."

Last year, federal experts estimated roughly six to 10 million salmon would appear, but ultimately only around 1.4 million did, making it the worst season in a half-century, and prompting Ottawa to establish the Cohen Commission to investigate the vanishing Fraser sockeye, which will resume holding formal hearings next week in Lillooet.

Although this year's numbers appear promising, fish biologist John Reynolds of Simon Fraser University said it doesn't mean the problem of declining fish stocks is by any means over.

"Everybody knows that salmon have good years and bad years," said Reynolds. "The thing to bear in mind is the parents of the current generation that are coming back now were obviously different than the ones that spawned the disastrous run last year. These are fish that went out to sea as juveniles in 2008, and what this is telling us is that sea conditions when they first entered the marine environment from the mouth of the Fraser and first started working their way up the coast, they probably encountered better sea conditions in terms of either food or fewer predators than their predecessors."

Reynolds added this is only his "best guess," and experts don't really know why stocks are better this year.

"The problem is there is very little information about what actually happens to the fish once they hit the sea as juveniles. They're very vulnerable and people just keep their fingers crossed for two years hoping that good numbers will return once they've completed their circuit up the coast to the Bering Sea and back."

Current salmon stock numbers on the Stuart River in northern B.C., which help indicate expectations for the Fraser, are significantly better than expected.

The Pacific Salmon Commission's latest estimate for the Stuart stands at around 90,000 fish, more than double its pre-season estimate.

Eighty per cent of the sockeye are expected to arrive in the Fraser in the next few weeks.

The commercial sockeye fishery was last open in 2006 when a total commercial catch of 3.7 million fish was approved. A limited fishery opened two years ago with just 17,000 sockeye caught.

afleming@royalcityrecord.com